 We are traders who have a "roundtable on the subject of the investigation of possible trading systems and the question arose of optimization. This is very important for traders who wish to apply a systematic approach to trading markets. These are some of the highlights of that discussion you consider as you prepare your trading strategies.
Typically when we think of optimizing a trading system that we are looking at a process which includes many variables, with different settings possible and perhaps a number of market conditions or filters which together with a strategy output gives us a multitude of ways to trade in a particular concept or idea.
Normally starts with an idea that the retailer has built on ideas or practices fromtheory cooling where it is believed that the system offers a persistent advantage in comparison with the market average return simply buying and holding. It is also possible however, the advantage can come from a brute force that the data mining is a statistical advantage in a combination of market conditions. In other words, the idea comes from the root of massive calculations, not an academic or intuitive knowledge.
In any case, what we have is a system multiple components, each of which may vary and a first step across the middle of the road parameters are a persistent advantage in multiple markets, with a statistical significance. Human nature being what it is, we'd like to start testing different parameters settings for each component to determine the best combination for the return and stronger for the parameters that seem to have more power when it comes to influence outcomes. In statistics, this approach is called factor analysis or principal component analysis.
Ideally, you want to find the maximum Absolute return by finding the absolute optimal configuration for each of the parameters possible and then have it on the market to start trading. Taken to an extreme, This can produce a phenomenon of curve fitting or optimization. What may end up is a system that is perfect for the single set of data conditions of the test. The problem, of course, is that the future may not always show the same data set again over optimize your system will perform under a great surprise.
The answer This phenomenon is usual to perform tests on samples of data. In other words, the system design in a data set is refined to a certain extent and then the test a new set of market data to see if it persists edge. If you are developing systems of practices that always discarding their systems after the test, is likely to occur as a result of further optimization.
In practice, then, we find the correlation between the strength of the results in multiple markets with the conditions of the test shows that the performance of a persistent advantage in many market conditions, but without trying to overthrow the system of conditions ideals.
One way to keep this systematic approach to the issue is to continue to monitor the implementation in a feed-forward approach that examines the actual trading results to see how the performance results compared to the test and confirmation of yield curves.
The starting point: the more you rely on automatic trading systems, the largest of its research and validation process since it is not going to use inexperienced traders protocol to avoid going off the deep end.
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